El Amanani kaphethiloli eYurophu akhuphukele phezulu emlandweni esikhathini esingamahora ambalwa Ngemva kokuguquka kwamuva kwenkinga yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, ukumiswa kokukhiqizwa kwegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi (i-LNG) eQatar kanye nokwanda kokungezwani kwezempi eduze kweStrait of Hormuz kubangele imisindo ezimakethe zamandla zaseYurophu.
Esikhaleni seseshini eyodwa, inkomba eyinhloko yokulinganisa, inkontileka ye-TTF ethengiswa eNetherlands, isifinyelele ukukhuphuka kwenani phakathi kuka-40% no-50%, kusuka ku-30-32 €/MWh kuya kumazinga angu-46-48 €/MWhLesi sinyathelo sibuyisela amanani emazingeni angakaze abonwe kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka odlule futhi sibeka izindleko zikaphethiloli emuva enkabeni yempikiswano yezomnotho yaseYurophu.
Ukuqhuma kwezepolitiki okuzamazamisa imakethe yegesi
Ukukhuphuka kwaqala ngemuva kwe- Ukuhlaselwa kwe-US kanye ne-Israel ezindaweni ezihlaselwe e-Iran kanye nokuziphindiselela okulandelayo kwe-Iran ngokumelene nengqalasizinda ebalulekile yamandla ePersian Gulf. Phakathi kwezinhloso kukhona iRas Laffan, isikhungo esikhulu kunazo zonke sokuthumela i-LNG emhlabeni, esiseQatar futhi esibhekele cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezinhlanu zokunikezwa kwale peteroli emhlabeni jikelele.
I-QatarEnergy, inkampani kahulumeni, imemezele ukuthi Ukukhiqizwa kwegesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nayo kuyaphela okwesikhashana eRas Laffan naseMesaieed complexes ngenxa yokuhlaselwa yidrone. Ngemva kwamahora ambalwa nje kwalesi simemezelo, i-TTF yaseYurophu ikhuphuke ngaphezu kwe-€48/MWh, okuyizinga layo eliphakeme kakhulu cishe ngonyaka.
Akukhona nje kuphela ukuvalwa kwezikhungo okukhathaza izimakethe, kodwa nomongo obanzi: kungenzeka ukuthi kube nokuvinjelwa isikhathi eside noma ukuphazamiseka okukhulu eStrait of Hormuzindawo ebalulekile yokuthutha ingxenye enkulu yokuhweba ngama-hydrocarbon emhlabeni wonke. I-Iranian Revolutionary Guard ikhulise ukuba khona kwayo kule ndawo, futhi imithombo ehlukahlukene ibika ukuhlukunyezwa nokuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi yabathengisi.
Ngokuhambisanayo, Amanani kawoyela aphakathi eBrent naseWest Texas Amanani nawo akhuphuke kakhulu, ngenxa yokwesaba ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa okuvela eSaudi Arabia kanye nabanye abakhiqizi esifundeni. Nakuba ukugxila okusheshayo kuphethiloli, umphumela ohlangene emandleni jikelele wenza kube nzima nakakhulu umbono weYurophu.
Ukwanda okukhulu okubhalwe ku-TTF kukhumbuza ukunyakaza okwenzeka ngosuku lokuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine, lapho intengo kaphethiloli ikhuphuka ngo-51% ngosuku olulodwa, futhi emasontweni alandelayo, yakhuphuka isuka kuma-euro angaba ngu-25 yaya ngaphezu kuka-300 €/MWh ngaphambi kokuba ibuyele kancane kancane ku-30.
Kungani iYurophu isengozini kangaka yokugumbuqelwa yiQatar neHormuz?
Ukuhlasela ingqalasizinda yaseQatar kuza ngesikhathi lapho IYurophu incike kakhulu kugesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe kunangaphambi kwempi e-Ukraine.Ukwehla okukhulu kokungeniswa kwegesi eRussia ngepayipi kuqinise indima yabahlinzeki abahlukile, kanti i-United States, iQatar, i-Algeria, neNigeria ziphakathi kwezibaluleke kakhulu emakethe yaseYurophu.
Kuleli bhodi, I-Qatar isizibonakalise njengenye yabathengisi abakhulu be-LNG emhlabeniUkuthunyelwa kwabo kumelela cishe ingxenye yesihlanu yokuhweba ngegesi ewuketshezi emhlabeni wonke, kanti isabelo sabo sokungeniswa kwe-European Union sisukela ku-7% kuya cishe ku-15% wesamba. Nakuba umthelela wabo oqondile eSpain umncane, umthelela emananini usakazeke kabanzi, njengoba igesi ithengiswa emakethe yomhlaba wonke futhi evulekile.
Iphuzu elibucayi kakhulu yiStrait of Hormuz, imbobo ebalulekile lapho cishe u-20%-30% wegesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe kanye nengxenye yesihlanu kawoyela othuthwa ngolwandleNakuba i-Iran ingakakhiphi isinqumo sokuvalwa ngokusemthethweni, ukwanda kokungezwani, ukuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi kanye nokuhoxiswa komshuwalense yizinkampani zomshuwalense kubangele ukuthi imikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kanye nezinkampani ze-LNG zigweme indlela ngenxa yokwesaba ukuba yizisulu zemicibisholo noma ama-drone.
Lesi simo sandisa ukungaqiniseki ngokufika kwezimpahla eYurophu nase-Asia. Uma ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okuvela eQatar nakwamanye abakhiqizi baseGulf kwehla noma kubiza kakhulu ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kanye nezingozi ezengeziweIntengo yegesi elinganiselayo eYurophu ithinteka ngokushesha, njengoba sekuvele kubonwe ku-TTF nakwezinye izindawo ezifana ne-NBP yaseBrithani.
Embonini nasemakhaya aseYurophu, lokhu kuguquguquka kuhumusha izindleko zamandla eziphezulu njengoba nje amazwe amaningi ayezama ukuhlanganisa ukuguquguquka kwentengo ngemuva kokushaqeka kuka-2022. Inhlanganisela ye Ukungezwani okukhulu kwezepolitiki, ukuncika ekungenisweni kwe-LNG, kanye nezindawo zokugcina igesi ezingenamuntu kunokuvamile Lokhu kudala isimo esibucayi kakhulu.
Ukuziphatha kwamuva kwe-TTF kanye nomphumela wayo eSpain nase-EU
Emasontweni angaphambi kokwanda kwamanje, ukuziphatha kwemakethe kwase kuvele kubonise ukwesaba okuthile. NgoFebhuwari, Amanani kaphethiloli eYurophu akhuphuke phakathi kuka-€29,8 kuya ku-€35,7/MWh Ngokusho kwezinkontileka ezixoxiswane ngazo ku-ICE, iziqongo zihlotshaniswa nezinguquko zesimo sezulu kanye nezindaba zezwe ezihlobene nemizila yase-United States, e-Iran, kanye ne-LNG.
Ekuqaleni kwenyanga, amanani akhuphuke cishe afinyelela cishe €35,7/MWh phakathi kwezibikezelo zokubanda okukhulu kanye nokwanda kokusetshenziswa kwegesi ukukhiqizwa kukagesiNgemva kwalokho, isimo sehle okwesikhashana saya ku-€29-30/MWh, sisekelwa yisimo sezulu esipholile kanye nokulindela ukutholakala okukhulu kwegesi yase-US yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
Nokho, njengoba inyanga iqhubeka, ukungabaza kwabuya. Ukungezwani phakathi kweWashington neTehran kanye nokusongela ukugeleza kwempahla eHormuz Bavuselele ukuguquguquka, bacindezela i-TTF ukuthi ibuyele emuva cishe ku-€32/MWh ngomhlaka-20 kuNhlolanja. Ezinsukwini zokugcina zenyanga, ezinye izimpawu zokutholakala okuthuthukisiwe zazivumele ukwehla kwentengo okuqhubekayo, kwaze kwaba yilapho ukuhlaselwa kweRas Laffan kubhidliza lokho kulinganisela okubuthakathaka.
Umphumela ube ushintsho olungazelelwe lwendawo: Kusukela endaweni ezinzile ebangeni lika-30-34 €/MWh, ngokuzumayo ikhuphuke yaya ku-46-48 €/MWh, ngokunyuka kwangaphakathi kwezinsuku okungu-40%-50% okuphakathi kokwanda okukhulu kwansuku zonke okuqoshwe kule makethe selokhu kwaqala impi e-Ukraine.
ISpain, eye yahlukanisa izimpahla zayo ngokungenisa igesi evela e-Algeria, eNigeria, e-United States nakwezinye izindawo, ngaphezu kokukhuthaza amaphrojekthi e- biomethaneUmthelela uzwakala kakhulu ngamanani entengo ezitolo ezinkulu zaseYurophu. Nakuba isisindo esiqondile seQatar ekuthengweni kweSpain sincaneUhlelo lwegesi lukazwelonke luhlanganiswe ngokuphelele emakethe yomphakathi, ngakho-ke noma yikuphi ukwanda okukhulu kwe-TTF kugcina kuthinta ibhili yamandla, kokubili ezinkampanini nakubathengi.
Izimali ezigciniwe zaseYurophu ziphansi kakhulu futhi zisengozini yokwenyuka kwentengo isikhathi eside
I-geopolitics akuyona yodwa into ethinta isimo sengqondo sabasebenzi. Izinga lokugcina igesi e-European Union okwamanje lingaphansi kuka-31% wamandla ayo onke, inani elingaphansi ngokusobala kune-40% eqoshwe ngalesi sikhathi ngonyaka odlule, ngokusho kwedatha evela kumapulatifomu ahlukahlukene akhethekile.
Amazwe abalulekile okulinganisela uhlelo, njengeJalimane neFrance, akhona ukubhukha okuphakathi kuka-20%-21%EJalimane, izindawo zokugcina izinto zinomthamo ocishe ube ngu-20,5%, kanti eFrance zinomthamo ocishe ube ngu-21%. Lawa amazinga aphansi ekupheleni kobusika, yize ingozi yokuntuleka okusheshayo inqunyelwe uma isimo sezulu singabi sibi kakhulu; ukuhlukahluka kwezitshalo e- i-biogas kungaba negalelo ekuhlinzekeni ukuqina.
Ukukhathazeka kusesikhathini esiphakathi: Uma izindawo zokugcina impahla zingenalutho ekupheleni kwesizini ebandayo, kulapho kuzoba nzima futhi kubize khona ukuzigcwalisa ebusika obuzayo.Abahlaziyi abafana noNorman Liebke waseCommerzbank bakhomba ukuthi amazinga okukhishwa kwegesi anciphile njengoba isimo sezulu sithuthuka, kodwa bagcizelela ukuthi inselele yokugcwalisa kabusha amasheya isalokhu inkulu.
Imibiko eminingana iyavuma ukuthi, ekupheleni kukaMashi, Amadiphozithi aseYurophu angafinyelela emazingeni aphansi ngokomlandoLokhu kungadinga umkhankaso omkhulu wokujova phakathi nezinyanga ezifudumele. Uma amanani kaphethiloli ehlala ephezulu phakathi nentwasahlobo nehlobo, umsebenzi uzoba mubi kakhulu kubathengisi, amabhizinisi, futhi ekugcineni, abasebenzisi bokugcina.
Futhi, noma yikuphi ukwanda kwengxabano ePersian Gulf noma ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo eHormuz Lokhu kungenza inqubo ibe nzima kakhulu ngokunciphisa ukutholakala kwe-LNG emhlabeni wonke nokwenza izinkontileka ezintsha zokuphakelwa kwesikhathi eside ezifunwa ngabadlali abaningi baseYurophu zibize kakhulu.
Lokho okushiwo abahlaziyi ngamanani kaphethiloli eYurophu
Izinkampani zocwaningo kanye namabhange okutshalwa kwezimali seziqalile ukulungisa izimo zazo. Izinkampani ezifana neGoldman Sachs zikhombisa ukuthi, uma Iziphazamiso eStrait of Hormuz zithathe cishe inyangaAmanani kaphethiloli eYurophu angaphindeka kabili kusukela emazingeni amuva nje, okuzokwenza i-TTF ibe ngaphezu kuka-€60/MWh.
Ezinye izikhungo zezimali, njenge-ING, nazo zigxile ku-oyela, zilinganisela ukuthi I-Brent crude ingakhuphukela ku-$100 ngebhareli ngalinye Futhi ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu lapho kunokuphazamiseka okukhulu nokuqhubekayo kokunikezwa kwempahla, kungafinyelela ngisho no-$140. Nakuba lokhu kubikezela kubhekisela ku-oyela ongahluziwe, umthelela kugesi kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali ngokujwayelekile kungaba nomthelela obalulekile ngokulinganayo.
Abaphathi bezimpahla baxwayisa ngokuthi Ubudlelwano phakathi kwesikhathi sokungqubuzana kanye nokunyakaza kwentengo abuqondile.Ukuvalwa kwengxenye kwesonto elilodwa noma amabili kungamuncwa ngokusebenzisa imali egciniwe kanye nokuhlela kabusha ukuthunyelwa, kodwa ukuvalwa cishe okuphelele kwenyanga noma ngaphezulu kungaphoqa ukubhujiswa okukhulu kwesidingo, kusunduze amanani endaweni ephezulu kakhulu.
Kulowo mongo, iYurophu ibhekene nokulinganisela okubucayi: ukulawula umthelela ezindlekweni zamandla ngaphandle kokubeka engcupheni ukuphepha kokuhlinzekwaI-United States isalokhu ingumhlinzeki oyinhloko wegesi kuleli zwekazi, kuyilapho i-Algeria, iNigeria, iNorway, kanye, ngezinga elincane, neRussia, ziqhubeka nokuqedela ingxube yokungenisa. Noma kunjalo, isisindo se-Persian Gulf LNG emakethe yomhlaba wonke sisho ukuthi ukungezwani lapho ngokuqinisekile kunemiphumela eYurophu.
Umphumela uzoncika ekutheni ithrafikhi edlula eHormuz ibuyela ngokushesha kangakanani esimweni esijwayelekile, kanye nasemandleni okuthutha. ukuqondisa kabusha ukuthunyelwa okuvela kwezinye izifunda kanye nokukhula kwesidingo e-Asia naseNyakatho Melika, ezincintisana ngqo neYurophu ngenani elifanayo legesi encibilikisiwe.
Sekukonke, ukunyuka kwezindleko zegesi eYurophu kubonisa inhlanganisela yokushaqeka kwezepolitiki, ubuthakathaka ngenxa yamazinga aphansi okugcina kanye nokwethembela okwandayo ku-LNG, i-cocktail ephinda ihlole ukuqina komnotho waseYurophu futhi ibeka izikweletu zamandla zemindeni namabhizinisi endaweni evelele ezinyangeni ezizayo.
